Changes in Disease Failure Risk of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma over Time: Analysis of 749 Patients with Long-Term Follow-Up

Background: The changes in the risk of disease failure over time in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) remains unknown. Methods: We analyzed 749 patients treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy in a single center. The annual hazard rates of disease failure (recurrence or death from any cause) were estimated using the life-table method. Results: In total, 41 (5.5%), 22 (2.9%) and 129 (17.2%) patients developed local, regional and distant recurrences, respectively; 149 (19.9%) patients died. Of the 600 patients who were alive at the last follow-up, 496 (82.7%) had follow-up times longer than 6 years. The 6-year failure-free survival rate was 74.8%. Older age (> 50 years) and advanced stage (Ⅲ-ⅣB) were independent risk factors for disease failure in multivariate analysis. The hazard curve for failure risk in the whole cohort showed a sharp peak at 2 years, changed to a gradually decreasing plateau between years 3 and 5 and then declined sharply. Subgroup analyses revealed similar hazard curves in both sexes. However, the patterns of hazard curve significantly differed between high-risk (> 50 years or stage Ⅲ-ⅣB) and low-risk (≤ 50 years or stage Ⅰ-Ⅱ) patients. Interpretation: The failure hazard rate in NPC didn't decline in a linear manner, but displayed a sharp peak at 2 years. The patterns of hazard function significantly differed between patients with different age and stage. Further studies are warranted to confirm our results.